Pure Water Hydration in an Avian Flu Pandemic - The Value of Planning in Norther
- By:Jon Stout
A threat to the nation’s health is emerging in Asia and the Indian Sub Continent that has potentially devastating implications. Avian Flu (the H5N1 strain of Influenza A) is a fact in many parts of Asia, although to date the avian strain has not combined with human influenza in a sustained manner. If a new strain emerges in humans with the fatality profile of the H5N1 virus, the effect on the world population will be dramatic.
When the combination to create a human to human strain occurs however, and isolated cases may already involve human to human transmission, the conditions precedent to a world wide pandemic will be met. Pandemic flu is defined as “a global outbreak of disease that occurs when a new influenza A virus appears in humans, causes serious illness and then spreads easily from person to person world wide.” (Source: Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP) The original Avian Flu (H5N1) represents a deadly strain for humans with a 50% mortality rate and many experts believe that the pandemic could be equally lethal..
Pandemics occur when existing flu strains mutate and make their way from birds or swine to humans in a new strain for which humans have little no immunity. Historically pandemic influenza has caused widespread damage and death. Influenza pandemics are a regular occurrence in history.
Pandemics in History
To date, only influenza outbreaks account for pandemics and pandemics have occurred throughout history. Over thirty pandemics have happened in recorded history. All influenza pandemics infect many times more people than normal seasonal ( flu caused by viruses that are already among people) influenza outbreaks. In addition major pandemics can have severe adverse effects on the economy and daily life.
Three flu pandemics occurred in the 20th century with differing levels of intensity..
• The 1918 “Spanish Flu” Pandemic- A "major level event" pandemic that accounted for over 50 million deaths world wide.( Originated in Kansas, USA)
• The 1957-58 “Asian Flu” pandemic – A “minor level event” pandemic that accounted for 36,000 deaths in the United States alone
• The Hong Kong Influenza of 1968-69 – A "minor level event "pandemic that accounted for about the same level of deaths as seasonal flu.
The severity of a pandemic depends upon the virus that causes it and the H5N1 Avian flu virus has proven to be particularly fatal to humans. One fact is clear: pandemic influenza will occur again – it is only a question of when. When a virus starts to spread easily and rapidly among humans the conditions for a pandemic have been met.
The 20th century pandemic examples occurred in waves of illness of up to three waves over a 9-12 month period. Often the first wave was not the most severe. During the 1918 Pandemic, over 90% of the deaths of the pandemic occurred during the second wave.
Human Impact on Virginia of a “Medium Level Event”
Northern Virginia is a densely populated, high technology corridor adjacent to Washington, D.C.. Because of the buildup in the Homeland Defense industry as a result of the war on terrorism, the population is large and experiencing rapid growth. Many of the new comers are young professionals with young families.
Based upon historic data a ‘medium level event”, more serious than the Asian Flu Pandemic of 1957-58 but not as severe as the 1918 Pandemic, will result in the following estimates for the State of Virginia:
• 2,700 to 6,300 deaths
• 12,000 to 28,500 hospitalizations
• 575,000 to 1.35 million outpatient visits
• 1.08 million to 2.52 million people becoming sick
Estimates for losses from a “major level event” are significantly higher.
Infrastructure Impact
In addition to human damage, the effect on the infrastructure will be considerable. Having a large number of ill people will be very destructive to the infrastructure. A major pandemic will likely disrupt essential public services and supplies and create temporary breakdowns in food delivery, electric and water utility service and possible public order in major urban centers. These critical industries are highly dependent on raw materials supplied by vendors and key employees with the expertise to maintain operations.
An Integrated Economy
The United Sates enjoys the benefits of a highly integrated economy with highly efficient delivery of goods and services and rapid communications. This level of integration allows for more efficient management of material inventories but would break down rapidly in the event of dislocation in any part of the chain. Basic industries like electrical and water utilities would soon cease to function. Disruption of channels of distribution for the food industry would result in rapid and near total shortages of food and water.